We show projected deaths caused by COVID-19 over the next four weeks, as forecasted by the Caltech CS156 model. The map indicates projected deaths per capita at the state or county level. The chart includes historical and projected death numbers, showing both daily statistics and a 7-day moving average.

Select Daily for the number of recorded and expected deaths, as reported by The New York Times and projected by our model, respectively. Select Cumulative for the total number of COVID-19 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, with the map displaying the additional projected deaths after today. Drag the slider to change the date of the projections being shown.

The colored circles in Infection Dynamics show reproduction numbers within two groups, young (under 65) and old (65 and over) with transition thresholds of 0.7, 1.0, and 1.3 for green to yellow to orange to red. The arrows show crossover infections; probability of a young person infecting an old person and vice versa, represented by the arrow size (small: below median, large: above median). Uncolored circles are displayed for counties that do not have enough data to infer their infection dynamics.

Under the menu headings, you can see further technical details of our model, as well as comparisons of our projections to historical data and external forecasts.