We compare performance of major COVID-19 models to the Caltech CS156 ensemble model in forecasting the pandemic. Starting from July 13th, the CS156 models that had performed best in prior weeks were aggregated to predict daily mortality.
We compare to IHME projections made on July 11, as well as other notable models that released predictions between July 12 and July 13: CovidActNow's Inference Predictions, Los Alamos' Forecasts, MIT ORC / COVID Analytics DELPHI model, and Youyang Gu's parameter search model.
Data is reported by the New York Times. The errors are computed statewide, and a perfect model corresponds to an RMSE of zero.