Comparing with Other Models

We compare performance of major COVID-19 models to the Caltech CS156 Model in forecasting the pandemic. Starting from August 21st, the CS156 models that had performed best in prior weeks were aggregated to predict daily mortality.

Data is reported by The New York Times. The errors are computed statewide, and a perfect model corresponds to an RMSE of zero. Here is a comparison of the average performance, with more details below.


Day:

RMSE:

Notes

[Models trained with cutoff of August 21st, 2020]