We compare performance of major COVID-19 models to our Caltech CS156 Model in forecasting the pandemic. Every day, our component models that had performed best in prior weeks are aggregated to create the CS156 model for predicting daily mortality.
Data is reported by The New York Times. The errors are computed statewide, and a perfect model corresponds to an RMSE of zero. Here is a comparison of the average performance, with more details below.
Compared to the CDC ensemble of 45 major models put together, the CS156 model by itself has been more accurate 58% of the time.